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Healthcare Risk Adjustment & Predictive Modeling, 2nd Edition NEW EDITION
Author: Duncan
Availability: In-Stock
Publisher: ACTEX
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DIGITAL (5 Yr License/ No Printing/ No Returns - $109.00
ISBN: 978-1-63588-414-2
PRINTED - $119.00
ISBN: 978-1-63588-413-5
PRINTED & DIGITAL (5 Yr License/ No Printing/ No Returns) Staged Availability: Digital - Now, Printed - 5/15/18 - $178.00
ISBN: 978-1-63588-415-9


On the Required Reading List for the SOA Group & Health Specialty exam

Digital text is a DRM Protected PDF; license details outlined below.

Healthcare Risk Adjustment and Predictive Modeling, 2nd edition
, provides a comprehensive guide to healthcare actuaries and other professionals interested in healthcare data analytics, risk adjustment and predictive modeling. The book first introduces the topic with discussions of health risk, available data, clinical identification algorithms for diagnostic grouping and the use of grouper models.

The second part of the book presents the concept of data mining and some of the common approaches used by modelers. The third and final section covers a number of predictive modeling and risk adjustment case-studies, with examples from Medicaid, Medicare Advantage, ACA Exchanges, ACOs disability, depression diagnosis and provider reimbursement, as well as the use of predictive modeling and risk adjustment outside the U.S. For readers who wish to experiment with their own models, the book also provides access to test datasets.

“Across the developed world, there is a growing trend for health systems to focus on the Triple Aim of improving quality, improving patients’ experience of care, while reducing per capita costs. One approach to achieving the Triple Aim is to predict and prevent so-called Triple Fail events (i.e., events that are simultaneously low quality, high cost, and represent a poor patient experience). Now in its second edition, this book is rapidly becoming required reading for all those who are interested in adopting this approach to the Triple Aim.”
- Dr. Geraint Lewis, FRCP, FFPH, Chief Data Office NHS England

"All in all, this is the work of a superbly mathematical yet practical mind. Ian Duncan's work is a brilliant exposition of analytical techniques, coupled with a masterful explanation of how to apply health risk analysis in a series of relevant, real world case studies."
- Regina E. Herzlinger, Nancy R. McPherson Professor Business Administration, Harvard Business School

If you are only going to buy one health insurance risk adjustment book, this one from Ian Duncan should be it."
- Stephen T. Parente, Minnesota Insurance Industry Chair of Health Finance


As part of your purchase of this book, you will receive an email with a keycode and instructions to access four test data sets mentioned in the book. Please check junk, spam or bulk folders in the event the keycode delivery email is misfiled upon delivery.  If you have any issues accessing these data sets, please contact the publisher at for assistance. 



Ian Duncan, FSA FIA FCIA FCA CSPA MAAA is an Adjunct Associate Professor of Actuarial Statistics in the Dept. of Statistics & Applied Probability at the University of California, Santa Barbara and President of Santa Barbara Actuaries Inc. He has over 30 years of experience in healthcare and insurance product design, management, financing, pricing and delivery, and has founded two previous companies to perform predictive modeling and outcomes analysis for healthcare. He is a frequent speaker about health outcomes, predictive modeling and risk adjustment.

Mr. Duncan holds a post-graduate degree in economics from Balliol College, Oxford and is a Fellow of the Society of Actuaries, the Institute of Actuaries (London), the Canadian Institute of Actuaries and the Conference of Consulting Actuaries.


Digital Content is Easy to Access & has Lots of Features... 

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  • Accessible through your ACTEX | Mad River Books account/web browser, offline via a FREE desktop player, & online or offline via a mobile application
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  • License valid for 5 Years
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  • Access to content on up to four devices
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Resale, sharing or any other violation of copyright is not allowed. Copyright infringement is a violation of the SOA Code of Professional Conduct and can result in discipline procedures. 

Receive a coupon code for $10 off this book (Printed, Digital, or Bundle) when you register for an ACTEX eLearning Webinar with Ian Duncan:  Introduction to Predictive Analytics in Healthcare or Introduction to Healthcare Risk Adjustment. This special offer will be emailed with 2 business days of the live event.